The decline in Winnebago County’s veteran population is more than just a demographic shift, it represents a significant economic loss and highlights the need for continued investment in the systems that support veterans. Understanding the financial impact of this decline underscores the importance of strengthening the Veterans Assistance Commission of Winnebago County (VACWC) and similar organizations that help veterans navigate employment, benefits, healthcare, and housing. By investing in these support networks, we can improve the quality of life for veterans while also preserving the economic contributions they make to our communities.
Winnebago County, Illinois, had 21,383 veterans in 2013 and 15,183 in 2023. This 29 percent decline exceeds the statewide 25 percent drop (664,000 to 498,000), suggesting Winnebago experienced a sharper veteran exodus, possibly due to local economic factors or outmigration.
Wage Loss: Assume 60 percent of the 6,200 lost veterans (3,720) were employed, based on national veteran labor force participation [Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023]. Winnebago County’s median income for males was $48,358 in 2010 [U.S. Census Bureau, 2010], but adjusting for inflation (about 25 percent by 2023) and veteran skills, use $50,000 annually. Full loss by 2023 means 3,720 veterans times $50,000 equals $186 million in annual wages. Since the decline was gradual, averaging 3,100 veterans lost yearly (6,200 divided by 2) gives $155 million annually over the decade.
VA Benefits Loss: Nationally, 40 percent of veterans receive VA benefits (conservative, given 46 percent of Gulf War era II veterans do [Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023]). For 6,200 veterans, that’s 2,480 recipients. Average annual VA payments range $12,000 to $18,000 [Department of Veterans Affairs, 2023]; using $15,000, this totals $37.2 million yearly by 2023. Averaged over the decade (3,100 lost times 40 percent times $15,000), it’s $18.6 million annually.
Consumer Spending Loss: Beyond wages and benefits, veteran households spend $25,000 annually [Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2023 estimate]. For 6,200 veterans, that’s $155 million yearly if all were lost at once. Averaging the decline (3,100 households yearly), it’s $77.5 million annually, impacting local retail, housing, and services.
Tax Revenue Loss: Illinois’ 4.95 percent income tax on $155 million in wages equals $7.7 million annually [Illinois Department of Revenue, 2023]. State sales tax (6.25 percent) on half of $77.5 million in spending (assuming taxable goods) equals $2.4 million yearly [Illinois Department of Revenue, 2023]. Combined, that’s $10.1 million in annual tax loss. Local property taxes vary, but this focuses on state level impacts.
Total Economic Impact: Summing direct losses: $155 million (wages) plus $18.6 million (benefits) plus $77.5 million (spending) equals $251.1 million annually by 2023. Cumulative loss over 2013 to 2023, assuming a linear decline, is 10 years times $251.1 million divided by 2 (averaging the ramp up) equals $2.51 billion total, though early exits might lower this slightly to $2.3 to $2.5 billion. This excludes multipliers (e.g., 1.62 from VA studies [Wisconsin Department of Veterans Affairs, 2021]), which could push the annual impact to $406 million.
Winnebago County’s economic impact from losing 6,200 veterans (21,383 in 2013 to 15,183 in 2023) is approximately $251 million annually by 2023, with a cumulative loss of about $2.3 to $2.5 billion over the decade. However, this estimate assumes all losses stem from outmigration; if 20 percent to 30 percent of the 6,200 veterans (1,240 to 1,860) passed away instead, plausible given the national median veteran age of 62 [VetPop2020, Department of Veterans Affairs], the economic impact could decrease by $50 to $75 million annually and $0.5 to $0.75 billion cumulatively.
References
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023). Employment Situation of Veterans – 2023.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). American Community Survey, Winnebago County Data.
Department of Veterans Affairs. (2023). VA Benefits and Health Care Utilization Statistics.
Consumer Expenditure Survey. (2023). U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Estimates.
Illinois Department of Revenue. (2023). Tax Rates and Statistics.
Wisconsin Department of Veterans Affairs. (2021). Economic Impact of Veterans Study.
Department of Veterans Affairs. (2020). VetPop2020: Veteran Population Projection Model.
